Beta Free during beta
FFSurvivor turns the betting market into no-vig win probabilities, plans every one of your entries across the whole season, and prices what each plan is worth against the field in your contest — not just whether it survives.
No credit card, no betting account. Paid plans are coming — see pricing.
JAX
LAC
SF
your picks portfolio plan on the board
Survivor looks simple. Pick one winner a week. The math underneath is not simple at all, and most pools are decided by the picks nobody planned.
There is no second chance and no consolation bracket. A single upset in week 3 ends a season you spent months planning.
Every team can be used exactly once. Burning a strong favorite early leaves you reaching for coin flips in December.
This week's safest team is often next month's only safe team. The right choice depends on all 18 weeks at once.
The pot is, and it is split among everyone left standing. Clearing a week with four thousand others on the same pick leaves your share where it started.
What you get
Nothing here is a hunch. The probabilities come from the same lines the sportsbooks post, stripped of their margin, and everything downstream is built on them.
Moneylines from the market are pulled every morning and converted to no-vig probabilities, so the vig is removed before the number reaches your board.
Disagree with the market on a division game or a quarterback injury? Override any game in your pool and every plan downstream uses your number.
Your survival odds are computed exactly across every remaining week — no sampling noise — and thousands of simulated pool seasons against an estimated field price what surviving is actually worth.
How often each plan is still alive at week 10, and what a season of it is worth against a typical entry in the same contest.
Optimal
Plans every remaining week at once for the best chance of surviving
64%
1.0×
Contrarian
Leans off the crowd where it is worth the risk, so a surviving entry shares the pot with fewer people
57%
1.6×
Greedy
Takes the best team available each week and ignores what it costs later
51%
0.8×
Random
Picks blindly, so you can see what the odds and the plan are worth together
19%
0.3×
Notice the contrarian plan survives less often and is worth more: it wins fewer seasons and shares the pot with fewer people when it does. These figures are illustrative and are here to show what the comparison looks like. Your own numbers depend on your contest, your remaining teams, and the odds on the day you run it.
KC
plan
BUF
plan
PHI
Counting each entry's pick, or the portfolio plan's where there isn't one yet — exact, from every way this week's games can fall.
New: multiple entries
The big contests let you buy several entries, and the people who win them do. Planning each one on its own puts them all on the same favorite, and one upset takes out the lot. FFSurvivor keeps every entry's picks separate and plans them together.
Up to 25 entries in a pool, each with its own picks
Every entry has its own season, its own spent teams, and its own plan. Rename, duplicate, and drag them into order; the board shows which entries are already on a team.
A portfolio plan that spreads the risk on purpose
The portfolio plans your entries as a set: it goes after the most total value while keeping the chance of losing every entry in a single week small, and it tells you what that safety costs.
The week's odds across all of them, exactly
How likely all of your entries clear the week, at least one does, and none do — counted from every way the games can fall, never sampled.
Entries that share picks share a run
Two entries on the same picks get one answer; only an entry that goes its own way is recomputed. An eliminated entry stops being planned and stays on the record.
Built for real contest rules
A plan is only as good as the rules it was built for. Most planners quietly assume one pick a week, a full eighteen weeks, and a field that never changes, then hand you a plan that cannot be played. FFSurvivor models the contest you are actually in.
Presets for the big contests
DraftKings, Circa, and Stations fill in the field size and the tie rule when you create the pool. Or set your own for any pool with a known number of entrants.
A field size that follows the contest
Contests publish who is left after each weekend. Enter the number once a week and every plan is priced against the field as it stands, not the one that started.
Multi-pick weeks, solved as one problem
Set any week to one, two, or three picks. Each pick is its own slot in the same season-long assignment, and two picks in a week never share a game.
Start and end wherever your pool does
Joining in week 6, or playing a pool that stops at week 14? Choose the first and last week, backfill the picks you already made, and the plan covers only the weeks you actually play.
Finals come in on their own
Scores sync while games are on. A recorded pick stays green until a final says otherwise and turns red when it loses, a game under way is never recommended, and the week turns over without you touching anything.
KC
BUF
PHI
DAL
Both picks have to win for week 12 to be survived, and neither team can appear again for the rest of the season.
Preset field sizes, editable, and re-entered week by week as the contest thins.
Week 4
The Ravens and Vikings held, and only 320 of 6,292 Circa Survivor entries went out. The ones who lost mostly paid for trying to be clever with the Bills, Lions, Steelers and Cardinals.
Thomas Deane 4 min
Week 5
Pinnacle has the Cowboys at -449 over a Tampa Bay team starting an undrafted rookie, and close to half of every pool is on them tonight. The full-season plans take Dallas in a small pool and Houston in a big one, and four of the board's best later games run through a Giants team that is 3-1.
Beau Halding 11 min
Week 3
Six favorites lost in Week 3, after the Chargers in Week 1 and the Bucs, Chargers and Ravens in Week 2. The NFL is pure chaos, and the list of sure things keeps shrinking.
Thomas Deane 2 min
Pricing
Every plan is unlocked while FFSurvivor is in beta. Paid plans are coming, and the prices below are what they'll cost — shown now so nothing is a surprise later. Beta accounts lock in the founding-season price.
The board, the blog, and one pool to track.
$0 forever
Free during beta and after it.
The full-season plans and what they're worth in your contest.
$0
$49
/ season
Free during beta. $49 per season when paid plans launch.
Every entry you hold, planned together.
$0
$129
/ season
Free during beta. $129 per season when paid plans launch.
Planned launch prices, per NFL season. Pricing details and FAQ
The workflow
Pick a preset or name your own pool, set the weeks and picks it demands, add an entry for every ticket you hold, and record any picks you have already made.
Start a run and FFSurvivor computes each plan's exact survival odds against current probabilities, then simulates thousands of pool seasons against an estimated field to price what surviving is worth.
The portfolio plans your entries together. Optimal solves each for the best chance of surviving, contrarian for the biggest share of the pot, greedy takes the best team each week, and random shows what the others are actually worth.
Switch plans and the ladder redraws the season. Every plan's pick is marked on the board, one tap records yours, and a line move, a final, or a new pick retires any answer it changed.
Free during beta. No credit card required.
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