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Dominate your NFL survivor pool

FFSurvivor turns the betting market into no-vig win probabilities, then simulates thousands of seasons to tell you which team to spend this week and which to save.

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Planned season

Illustrative
  1. WK 1 JAX
  2. WK 2 LAC
  3. WK 3 SF
  4. WK 4 •••
  5. WK 5 •••
  6. WK 6 •••
  7. WK 7 •••
  8. WK 8 •••
  9. WK 9 •••
  10. WK 10 •••
  11. WK 11 •••
  12. WK 12 •••
  13. WK 13 •••
  14. WK 14 •••
  15. WK 15 •••
  16. WK 16 •••
  17. WK 17 •••
  18. WK 18

Your full season plan, the reasoning behind each pick, and the odds it is built on.

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The challenge of survivor pools

Survivor looks simple. Pick one winner a week. The math underneath is not simple at all, and most pools are decided by the picks nobody planned.

  • One mistake eliminates you

    There is no second chance and no consolation bracket. A single upset in week 3 ends a season you spent months planning.

  • No repeat teams all season

    Every team can be used exactly once. Burning a strong favorite early leaves you reaching for coin flips in December.

  • Every pick costs you a future pick

    This week's safest team is often next month's only safe team. The right choice depends on all 18 weeks at once.

What you get

Powered by real market data

Nothing here is a hunch. The probabilities come from the same lines the sportsbooks post, stripped of their margin, and everything downstream is built on them.

Vegas win probabilities, synced daily

Moneylines from the market are pulled every morning and converted to no-vig probabilities, so the vig is removed before the number reaches your board.

Your own probability overrides

Disagree with the market on a division game or a quarterback injury? Override any game in your pool and every simulation downstream uses your number.

Monte Carlo season simulation

Thousands of full seasons run against your remaining teams and your pool's rules, so a recommendation reflects the whole schedule, not just Sunday.

Strategy performance

Share of simulated seasons still alive at week 10, across one 10,000 season run.

Illustrative sample

Optimal assignment

Plans every remaining week at once

64%

Weekly greedy

Takes the best team available each week

51%

Biggest favorite, no plan

Ignores what it costs you later

38%

These figures are illustrative and are here to show what the comparison looks like. Your own numbers depend on your pool's rules, your remaining teams, and the odds on the day you run it.

Built for real pool rules

Multi-pick weeks and mid-season starts

Plenty of pools demand two picks on Thanksgiving week, or three down the stretch. Most planners quietly assume one pick a week, over a full eighteen, and hand you a plan that cannot be played. FFSurvivor treats every required pick as its own decision, across exactly the weeks your pool runs.

  • Set any week to one, two, or three picks

    Configure it per week on the pool page. The limit is enforced on the server, not just in the browser.

  • Start and end wherever your pool does

    Joining in week 6, or playing a pool that stops at week 14? Choose the first and last week when you create the pool, or change it later — the plan, the odds, and the survival math cover only the weeks you actually play.

  • The optimizer solves every pick at once

    A three-pick week becomes three slots in the same assignment problem, so no team is ever spent twice across the season.

  • Two picks a week never share a game

    Both sides of one matchup can't both win, so the planner keeps each pick on a separate game.

  • The survival math accounts for it

    A multi-pick week is only survived when every one of its picks wins, and the simulated odds reflect that.

Week 12 requires 2 picks

2 of 2 used
  1. WK 11
    KC
  2. WK 12
    BUF
    PHI
  3. WK 13
    DAL

Both picks have to win for week 12 to be survived, and neither team can appear again for the rest of the season.

The workflow

How it works

  1. Simulate thousands of seasons

    Start a run and FFSurvivor plays out the rest of the season over and over against current probabilities, tracking how often each pick path survives.

  2. Compare optimal against greedy

    Two strategies compete. Greedy takes the best team each week. Optimal solves the whole schedule as one assignment problem, so no week steals from another.

  3. Get a weekly recommendation

    You get one team for this week, the reasoning behind it, and the plan it belongs to. Lock it in, adjust an override, and run it again.

At a glance

10,000
Simulations per run
18
Weeks in a season
272
Games on the schedule
32
Teams, each usable once
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Free while FFSurvivor is in alpha.